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On June 29, the people of Guinea-Bissau returned to the voting booths for the first round of democratic elections for a new President. Since independence from Portugal in 1974, the Bissau-Guineans have gone to the polls three times to elect a President in multi-party elections only to have corruption and mismanagement, as well as internal military pressure, lead to civil wars, military coups, and greater economic failures.
One difference between this election and elections past is the absence of one key player, the late President Joao Bernardo Vieira. Vieira seized power in a military coup in 1980 and then won the first democratic election for President in 1994. Under his reign, Guinea-Bissau fell into a civil war and he was ousted from the presidency in 1999. He did return to win the third Presidential elections in 2005 after the elected president from 2000 (Kumba Yala) was ousted in a bloodless military coup. Sadly, the perpetual cycle of mismanagement and coups continued and on March 2, 2009, President Vieira was assassinated in retaliation for the assassination of the Army Chief of Staff Batista Tagme Na Waie.
Although President Vieira has passed on, still remaining are familiar foes Kumba Yala of the Party of Social Renovation (PRS), former President and candidate in all previous elections, and Malam Bacai Sanha of the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), who also ran in 2000 and 2005 and was the Acting President leading up to the 2000 election. Both Yala and Sanha were victorious in the first round of elections on June 29 garnering the highest number of votes and will face-off for the presidency on July 26.
Guinea-Bissau, a country of approximately 1.6 million people has failed to develop under both parties in the past and there is no certainty that the results of this election will change the direction of the country. In the first round of elections, voting was peaceful and declared free and fair, but voter turnout was low due to heavy rains, fear of violence, and voter empathy due to the long history of coups, violence, and lack of development (current GDP per capita is ranked 224 out of 229 countries). Does it really matter who is elected president? Will there be any difference between the PRS and PAIGC?
Both parties and leaders bring legacies of corruption and mismanagement, as well as failed policies and unmet promises. Most likely, the people of Guinea-Bissau will suffer with the election of either candidate, but they will elect the candidate peacefully and fairly. In a weak or failed state, democratic institutions and the rule of law are usually trumped by the military. Guinea-Bissau is no different. The key questions are will the military support the elected leader, no matter his current affiliation with the military leaders? Will the military decrease its role in favor of democratic governance in Guinea-Bissau? Or will it only loosen its power over government until the government acts against the desires/ambitions of the military leaders? Without assistance from the international community, the most likely is the latter.
Why Guinea-Bissau matters to the US?
Although the average American has never heard of Guinea-Bissau, it is of significance in the international community due to its role in Drug Trafficking and its potential role in terrorism. Guinea-Bissau and its port of Bissau is utilized by South American drug cartels to transit drugs to Europe. Its vast ungoverned space, lack of law enforcement officers, and its status as a "Weak State" make it the perfect transit point to Europe. These conditions also make it a possible safe haven for terrorist groups. Although there are no reported terrorist groups in Guinea-Bissau, suspected Mauritanian Al-Qaeda terrorists were captured in January 2008 after having fled Mauritania after the killing of French Tourists (http://tinyurl.com/lh4fn9).
On the humanitarian side, the only way for Guinea-Bissau to create sustainable development and economic growth is to have a strong, respected, and democratically-elected government, where the military does not intervene and the politicians are held accountable for their actions. The US and the international community need to support Guinea-Bissau in restarting this path and provide assistance where possible.
Recent US and International Assistance to Guinea-Bissau
The US State Department gave $300,000 in support of the current election cycle, while USAID requested $700,000 in 2008 to support development in Guinea-Bissau in multiple areas. What hinders the US in providing assistance is the lack of a permanent mission in Guinea-Bissau. The US hasn't had an embassy in Guinea-Bissau since 1998 with the Ambassador to Senegal also serving as the Ambassador to Guinea-Bissau. The eventual return of the US to Guinea-Bissau will allow the US to play a stronger role in the democratic process in Guinea-Bissau. However, there has been no sign that the US will return to Guinea-Bissau anytime soon.
Internationally, the IMF has provided $2.9 million in emergency post-conflict assistance funds and recently the African Development Fund provided a $12 million dollar grant to Guinea-Bissau for Administrative Capacity Building Support, which will help to professionalize the civil servant workforce (http://tinyurl.com/kw2v5v). The United Nations recently announced as well that the Security Council extended the UN Peace building Support Office in Guinea-Bissau mandate until December 2009 and also asked the Secretary General to establish a permanent office called the UN Integrated Peace building Office in Guinea-Bissau starting in January 2010 (http://tinyurl.com/ksocpc).
These recent events will help to maintain an international interest in Guinea-Bissau, as well as allow for continued monitoring of the democratization process. If the US ever returns to Guinea-Bissau, the US will be able to deliver more development aid, as well as increase training and development assistance to the public sector.
Successful Elections = Progress?
Three times previously Guinea-Bissau has proven they can hold peaceful and mostly fair elections. However, the peace has quickly given way to military intervention and military coups. In order for the election to be deemed a step in the right direction, the international community must apply pressure on the military to respect the outcomes of the elections and to support the democratic process in place. This pressure must begin from its neighbors and other African countries. With civil unrest currently brewing in neighboring Guinea, Senegal must play a positive role in both countries while also respecting their sovereignty. At the end of the election, the international community cannot unroll it sleeves and say "Job well done" and walk away. The decision of the UN to open a permanent mission is a positive sign and shows Guinea-Bissau that assistance, as well as accountability, will be there long-term.
On July 27th, Guinea-Bissau will have a new president and hopefully a new chance at peace and development. With help from the International Community, the 4th time can be the charm.
